Hypothesis Registry

Introduction
Formal Specification Registry
Scheduled Regular Events
Scheduled Unique Events
Unpredictable Events

Introduction

The ability to discern effects of Global Consciousness depends on clear scientific questions that can be made into procedures for examining the data. There are various ways to do this but most have some form of prediction and confirmation as their base. In this Hypothesis Registry, we will identify some general expectations and several classes of specific predictions. The particular descriptions in most cases refer to a "standard analysis", which is described algorithmically in the Methodology section. In all cases, the combination of the information provided in the hypothesis with the external description of an analysis recipe will completely define the procedures to be followed.

During the early phases of the project, we will be making a variety of types of hypothesis, based on our developing ideas about what might make a difference. We have only a little experience, and we will welcome comment and suggestions. You are welcome also to make your own hypotheses, which will be included in the registry if they meet our criteria for specificity and relevance, discussed in the methodology section as well as in the "make a difference" note above.

We will hypothesize effects linked with known events, such as New Years celebrations and other widely celebrated and historically valued holidays, and certain globally interesting scheduled events such as World Cup Soccer and the Olympics.

Also known ahead of time, but with no regular schedule or repetition, are widely publicized ceremonies such as the Princess Diana and Mother Teresa funerals. In this category we also may place some unusual "cosmic" events such as major conjunctions, comets, and solar eclipses.

Unpredictable events like major earthquakes, the fall of the Berlin wall, the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, or the detonation of atomic weapons in India and Pakistan gather worldwide attention. These will constitute an important class of hypotheses for an effect on the EGG network of a large-scale concatenation of interest and attention in a unified mode.

On the most global level, we predict that there will be some order in the distributed matrix of data. But the design of equipment and protocols predicates that the data will be random, that is, there should be no temporal or correlational structure beyond that expected by chance. Therefore, the appearance of such structure, even in the absence of perceived events with importance to us, may be an indication of the unified global consciousness we hypothesize. We expect certain multi-dimensional analyses to help identify global structure and distinguish it from effects of mundane physical sources.

As discussed more fully in the GCP methodology description, the event-related predictions specify hypothesized effects on the network of REG devices to be co-temporaneous with the event. The times in our data displays will be presented in coordinated Universal Time (UTC) also known as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). For example, to discover whether there is structure in the data related to a prominent event reported in Switzerland, one hour (two in summer time) must be added to the UTC time to identify the event: 01:20 UTC = 03:20 in Switzerland in the Summer.

Many of the hypotheses in this registry are evaluated in a hand calculation, using the 15-minute Z-scores provided in the egg summary tables. All the Z-scores generated during the period specified in the hypothesis are squared and summed, to produce a Chi-square distributed quantity with degrees of freedom equal to the number of Z-scores. The probability of this Chi-square, which can be found using a Chi-square test calculator, represents an estimate of the likelihood that the composite deviation of the REG devices during this time was a chance fluctuation.

The descriptions and analyses here are done carefully, but they should be regarded as preliminary tests of the experimental hypothesis. The probability thresholds of 0.10 and 0.05 represent an estimated chance occurrence of so much apparent structure less than 10% or 5% of the time, respectively.


Introduction
Scheduled Regular Events
Scheduled Unique Events
Unpredictable Events
Formal Specification Registry


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