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The elections in Iraq, Jan 30 2005 were surprisingly successful by most
news accounts. Although the insurgent violence continued, and more than
40 people were killed, the Iraquis went to the polls. Here is a little
from an Indian newspaper:
BASRA (SOUTHERN IRAQ): Incongruously decked out with balloons and
streamers, the world's biggest war zone birthday party ended with three
cheers for democracy as the Anglo-American coalition forces played
midwife to the birth of a nation.
As the world has since learnt, Sunday's nationwide poll in Iraq, the
country's first real elections in half-a-century, had the extraordinary
sight of an estimated 8 million of 13 million registered voters defying
a surge of bombings and suicide attacks to cast their ballots.
The Iraqi poll panel's provisional estimate of turnout was 57%. Down in
the mainly Shia south, turnout may have been even higher.
The GCP prediction was for a 12 hour period beginning with the opening
of polls at 7:00 am. The Chisquare is 43687.5 on 43200 df, for p=0.049
and Z=1.655. The trace is interesting, because it is flat for several
hours, until a little after noon, at which point the deviation becomes
quite strong and persists until the end of the period. This follows
the description of the voting: at first, the turnout was very sparse, as
if people were testing the danger. But after a few hours the people came
in droves, flooding many of the polling places.
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