|
The elections in Iran in early June have led to prolonged
protests, with many thousands demonstrating in the streets
of Teheran. Worldwide attention has been focused, making a
potentially notable moment in global consciousness space.
This is a long-drawn-out event, and we have selected a
particularly powerful time to represent the reaction to the
elections. On the 19th of June, the Supreme Leader, Ali
Khamenei led Friday prayers and used the platform for a
strong condemnation of the protesters and a call for
acceptance of the democratic election. He also attacked
foreign governments for meddling in Iranian affairs,
singling out the UK for special mention. Leaders of the
opposition called for people to go to the steets again in
their "green revolution" to continue the protest and demand
a nullification and repeat election. Violence has escalated
and it is alleged that "thugs" have been imported by the
government to attack the protesters. Several more people have been killed
including a woman named Neda, apparently a bystander, whose death was
video recorded and instantly transmitted to world, becoming
a symbol of the ongoing tragedy.
The GCP prediction was set for 13:00 local time, when
Khomenei's speech was set, followed by a 24 hour period that
might capture much of the intense reaction. The result is
86944.702 on 86400 df, for p = 0.095 and Z = 1.309. The data
history graph shows a strong deviation beginning an hour or
so after the speech.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
|