Iran Nuclear Deal Signed

The diplomatic route is long and slow, but it is surely preferable to war. The US and several partners in the United Nations have been discussing a nuclear containment deal with Iran since 2003, with Iran seeking to bring broad and disruptive economic sanctions to an end. Finally, on July 14, the negotiators emerged from an 18 hour bargaining session that itself was the culmination of weeks of intense meetings, to say a deal has been made. The news coverage touches on both positive and negative reactions, but we can hope the positive intent will carry the day.

From The Telegraph, UK, Live Coverage Blog:

09:25

A "roadmap" has been signed between the United Nations' nuclear watchdog and Iran.

The UN International Atomic Energy Agency signed a roadmap with Iran on Tuesday with the aim of resolving all outstanding questions it has about the country's nuclear programme by the end of the year, the IAEA's director general said on Tuesday.

10.00

A short press conference in Vienna is underway, with EU High Representative Federica Mogherini and Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif making initial statements

Ms Mogherini says: "What we have in front of us today ... is the result of very hard work. ... I'd like to thank all of us sitting around this table."

She adds: "It is a decision that can open the way to a new chapter in international relations. ... I think this is a sign of hope for the entire world."

Mr Zarif calls the deal a "win-win situation".

"We are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody ... but now we are starting a new chapter of hope," he says.

Specific Hypothesis and Results

The GCP event was set for a 6 hour period beginning at 09:25 local time (10:25 UTC). The result is Chisquare 21876.463 on 21600, for p = 0.092 and Z = 1.328.

Interpretation

The following graph is a visual display of the statistical result. It shows the second-by-second accumulation of small deviations of the data from what’s expected. Our prediction is that deviations will tend to be positive, and if this is so, the jagged line will tend to go upward. If the endpoint is positive, this is evidence for the general hypothesis and adds to the bottom line. If the endpoint is outside the smooth curve showing 0.05 probability, the deviation is nominally significant. If the trend of the cumulative deviation is downward, this is evidence against the hypothesis, and is subtracted from the bottom line. For more detail on how to interpret the results, see The Science and related pages, as well as the standard caveat below.

Standard caveat

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every success might be largely driven by chance, and every null might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.