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Prof. Adrian Patrut proposed a prediction for Prince Charles' wedding:
"I am aware that the marriage of Prince Charles to Camilla Parker Bowles
was too close in time to the Pope's funeral and that it is possible that
you will not obtain significant results. But I think also that the
marriage of Prince Charles is a too important event to be overlooked by
the GCP." One of the intentions for the formal series of hypothesis
tests is to learn about different categories, even when we do not expect
strong deviations.
Adrian also said, "I expect a strong effect for the funeral and a
smaller effect or even no effect for the marriage ceremony.
I made this supposition based on the hypothesis concerning the
existence of a so-called 'mimosa-type' syndrome.
"The 'mimosa-type' syndrome stipulates that if an event generates a
significant
effect on the GCP network, a (similar or different) event that occurs
shortly after the previous event (probably a few days later) will
generate a smaller effect or even no effect.
"We will see what the results will show."
Following is the detailed description of the event
provided by Adrian Patrut:
Following is the detailed description of the event he provided:
PRINCE CHARLES MARRIES WITH CAMILLA PARKER BOWLES
Saturday, April 9, 2005
The civil Ceremony:
11.32 UTC: Prince Charles and Camilla Parker Bowles arrive at the 17th
century
Guildhall in Windsor in a black Rolls Royce type 1962.
11.52: Prince Charles and Camilla both say "yes" during the modest civil
marriage ceremony. Camilla becomes Duchess of Cornwall.
The religious ceremony:
13.23 UTC: Queen Elisabeth II and the Prince Consort Philip arrive at
the
Gothic St. George's Chapel at Windsor Castle.
13.29: Prince Charles and Camilla arrive at the St. George's Chapel and
are met
by the Archbishop Rowan Williams of Canterbury.
13.35: begin of the solemn religious ceremony, in the presence of 750
guests.
13.40: the Archbishop of Canterbury blesses Prince Charles and Camilla
after
they pledged to be faithful to each other.
14.09: end of the religious ceremony. 14:11: Prince Charles and his wife
Camilla leave the St. George's Chapel.
The standard analysis was used for the formal hypothesis test, with
times as specified by Adrian Patrut.
The departure from expectation during the specified period
is significant, with a Z-score of 1.681, and
p-value of 0.046.
Thus the Mimosa conjecture is not supported in this case. (Note,
however, that no single test of any question can be reliably made with
the low signal to noise data of the GCP.)
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