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On August 1 2007 at about 6 pm during the commuting
rush hour a major bridge on the arterial interstate highway
over the Mississippi in Minneapolis collapsed. 50 to 100
cars were on the bridge and plummeted into the river amidst
the wreckage of concrete and steel girders. Remarkably few
people were killed, though the number was not known early on
because of the difficulty recovering the bodies from the
Mississippi. At the time of this writing, 9 deaths were
certain, but the event was
surprising and shocking -- and it got attention far out of
proportion to the number of deaths. Hans Wendt, who is from
the area, reported the exact time as 18:02.
The formal prediction followed the typical pattern, about an
hour preceding the event and several hours following. The
prediction was for a NetVar deviation during the time from
22:00 on August 1 to 03:00 on August 2. The outcome is a
Chisquare of 17955 on 18000 df, for p = 0.592 and Z =
-0.234.
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