|
An email from Guido Cante suggested an event similar to some
early probes of the possibility there might be deviations in
the GCP data on dates indicated by astrological
calculations. He wrote
I published an essay where I put in connection the evolution
of financial
markets (exchanges) and the astral positions.. The period
analyzed is from 1929
to 2008, the evidence is statistically significant. ... In my paper I also
propose a future scenario
for 2010, until now the Dow Jones moved as expected. Now
the financial markets will
move toward a critical point on 20 September 2010 -- it
appears that day will be unusual.
...
I think that our studies are connected.
In my response, I proposed that he give me some exact times
and dates, which I would use to formulate predictions for
the GCP data following the model of earlier events 96 and
110 in the Results table. He did provide such information,
along with more description of his methods, including
reference to his book (in Italian) on the subject:
"Casualità o causalità. Connessioni tra i mercati azionari e
le posizioni astrali." di Guido Cante, ISBN 978-88-7937-521-4
The GCP event was set for September 20, 10:15 to 14:15 UTC,
to include the specific period suggested by Guido, plus or
minus two hours. The result is Chisquare 14586.015 on 14400
df rof p = 0.137 and Z = 1.095.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
|