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The 2012 State of the Union Address was given by United
States President Barack Obama on January 24, 2012, to a
joint session of Congress. It was aired on all the major
networks starting at 9 PM ET. It was Obama's third State
of the Union Address.
The speech was delivered on the floor of the United States
House of Representatives in the United States Capitol.
Among the topics that Obama covered in his speech were
the need for fair taxation, saying the rich should not pay lower rates than the
middle class. Attention was given to the end of the Iraq war and
progress in Afghanistan. Because this is an election year, the speech
had many points that related to the ongoing campaigns.
This is another in a series of major public speeches by
Obama, beginning during the campaign in 2008. They have generally
correlated with substantial deviations, and while this
speech was strong and forceful, it was pretty much business-like,
it shows no notable trend.
The GCP event was set for 9:00 pm ET to 11:00, and the
speech started at about 9:12 (marked in the figure below).
The outcome is
7185.901 on 7200 df, for p = 0.545 and Z = -0.112.
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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