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The 2011 State of the Union Address was given by United
States President Barack Obama on January 25, 2011, to a
joint session of Congress. It was aired on all the major
networks starting at 9 PM ET. It was Obama's second State
of the Union Address.
The speech was delivered on the floor of the United States
House of Representatives in the United States Capitol.
Among the topics that Obama covered in his speech were
proposals for job creation and federal deficit reduction.
This is another in a series of major public speechs by
Obama, beginning during the campaign. They have generally
correlated with substantial deviations, and while this
speech, like last year's was given after a turbulent year in
which the Democrats lost 60 seats or so, and hence their
majority in the House of
Representatives, it shows a positive deviation that
approaches the 5% significance level.
The GCP event was set for 9:00 pm ET to 11:00, and the
speech started at about 9:10 (marked in the figure below).
The outcome is
7384.486 on 7200 df, for p = 0.063 and Z = 1.530
It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny
statistical
effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from
noise. This means that every "success" might be largely
driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real
signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect
can
be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of
similar analyses.
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