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Earthquake, Turkey, 991112

Less than three months after the devastating August earthquake in Turkey, another large quake hit near the same area on the 12th of November 1999 in Duzce, Turkey, 170 Km east of Istanbul. The magnitude 7.2 quake followed a 5.7 event on the previous day. Again there is widespread destruction, and 450 or more are dead. The time was 18:59 local (16:59 UTC). The GCP prediction was made in a form that is more complex than usual, namely, positive deviations from expectation were predicted for the two hours preceding the quake (14:59:00 to 16:58:59 UTC), and negative deviations of Z^2 from expectation were predicted for two hours following the quake (16:59:00 to 18:58:59 UTC). The blocksize for analysis is 15 minutes, and the expectation category is medium.

The first graph shows the two hours prior to the quake.

Turkey (2) quake, 2 hrs prior

The second graph shows the inverted version of the two hour period following the quake, and represents the second half of the prediction, as described above.

Turkey (2) quake, 2 hrs post inverted

The third figure shows the data from the post-quake period in its original form.

Turkey (2) quake, 2 hrs post

(November, 1999, RDN, Prediction by Brenda Dunne, Figures by George deBeaumont).

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