G20 News Conference

The G20 meeting in London brought leaders from nations with the largest economies together with an agenda of devising ways to deal with the ongoing financial crisis. There was also the secondary but important purpose of the leaders learning to know each other. This was the first big meeting with a large group of major figures from around the world for President Barack Obama. He was effective and well received and his post-meeting News Conference was an opportunity for the international press to ask questions. It was a tour de force, with Obama fielding questions with grace, and I decided it could be another event in the series we have identified with Obama gathering crowds through a charismatic presence.

The GCP event was set for a three hour period beginning 45 mins before the news conference which began at 1:45 Eastern time, 17:00 to 20:00 UTC. The Result is Chisquare 10930.19 on 10800 df, with p = 0.188 and corresponding Z = 0.887.

G20 News

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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