Minneapolis Bridge Collapse

On August 1 2007 at about 6 pm during the commuting rush hour a major bridge on the arterial interstate highway over the Mississippi in Minneapolis collapsed. 50 to 100 cars were on the bridge and plummeted into the river amidst the wreckage of concrete and steel girders. Remarkably few people were killed, though the number was not known early on because of the difficulty recovering the bodies from the Mississippi. At the time of this writing, 9 deaths were certain, but the event was surprising and shocking -- and it got attention far out of proportion to the number of deaths. Hans Wendt, who is from the area, reported the exact time as 18:02.

The formal prediction followed the typical pattern, about an hour preceding the event and several hours following. The prediction was for a NetVar deviation during the time from 22:00 on August 1 to 03:00 on August 2. The outcome is a Chisquare of 17955 on 18000 df, for p = 0.592 and Z = -0.234.

Bridge Collapse

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