Bombay Train Bombings, July 11 2006

The Indian Prime Minister vowed last night to "defeat the cowardly and evil designs of terrorists" after seven bomb blasts ripped through the carriages of packed commuter trains and two stations in Bombay, killing at least 183 people and leaving more than 700 injured.

The rush-hour attacks on one of the world's most populous and chaotic cities sent hundreds of thousands of commuters fleeing from suburban stations, most on to the streets and even motorways in panic, as mobile phone lines jammed after the blasts that targeted stations along the city's busy western rail line.

The first attack took place at 6.24pm (11.54am GMT) with the others following in quick succession.

Our prediction was similar to others for events of this nature, half an hour before to several hours after the defining moment, which in this case extended over 10 or 20 minutes. The period was set from 11:24 to 16:24, and the standard Stouffer Z analysis was applied.

The outcome does not show a strong trend, though the trace is active. Chisquare is 18163 on 18000 df, for p=0.194 and Z=0.863.

Bombay Train Bombings, July 11 2006

We had only one egg running in India at this time. The graph shows a much stronger trend, and there is a sharp spike precisely at the time of the bombings.

Bombay Train Bombings, July 11 2006

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