Beijing gets 2008 Olympics

Peter Bancel wrote on Fri, 13 Jul 2001 12:55:13 +0100: "The site for the 2008 Olympics will be announced at noon Princeton time. This would be a good GCP prediction. There will be a billion Chinese following this intently."

This was accepted as a formal prediction, but required more specification. It would be a point event, for which the GCP's standard treatment predicts deviation in the data from a period surrounding the event. As specified in the registry: "The formal prediction is for a deviation during a half-hour period surrounding the moment of the formal announcement, using 12:00 noon as the point unless there is a significant change in the time for the event as determined from news coverage. This corresponds to the period 15:45 to 16:15, UTC. We will use seconds resolution for the analysis and specify medium expectation."

In fact, the decision was made and announced about two hours earlier, according to news sources. The CNN story announcing that Beijing had won was posted at 15:38 GMT, and the BBC story at 14:22 GMT, which implies that the announcement itself was made probably at about 14:00 give or take a few minutes. Thus the prediction period was moved back by two hours, setting the period from 13:45 to 14:15 UTC for definition of the formal dataset.

The graph shows the data from 31 reporting eggs for this period of time, with 14:00 marked to identify the likely time of the announcement. The deviation is positive, with a fairly steady trend and a final Chisquare of 1870.5 on 1800 degrees of freedom, for a probability of 0.121.

Beijing gets 2008 Olympics

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