Astrological Moment III.1

An email from Guido Cante suggested an event similar to some early probes of the possibility there might be deviations in the GCP data on dates indicated by astrological calculations. He wrote

I published an essay where I put in connection the evolution of financial markets (exchanges) and the astral positions.. The period analyzed is from 1929 to 2008, the evidence is statistically significant. ... In my paper I also propose a future scenario for 2010, until now the Dow Jones moved as expected. Now the financial markets will move toward a critical point on 20 September 2010 -- it appears that day will be unusual. ... I think that our studies are connected.

In my response, I proposed that he give me some exact times and dates, which I would use to formulate predictions for the GCP data following the model of earlier events 96 and 110 in the Results table. He did provide such information, along with more description of his methods, including reference to his book (in Italian) on the subject: "Casualità o causalità. Connessioni tra i mercati azionari e le posizioni astrali." di Guido Cante, ISBN 978-88-7937-521-4

The GCP event was set for September 20, 10:15 to 14:15 UTC, to include the specific period suggested by Guido, plus or minus two hours. The result is Chisquare 14586.015 on 14400 df rof p = 0.137 and Z = 1.095.

Moment III.1

It is important to keep in mind that we have only a tiny statistical effect, so that it is always hard to distinguish signal from noise. This means that every "success" might be largely driven by chance, and every "null" might include a real signal overwhelmed by noise. In the long run, a real effect can be identified only by patiently accumulating replications of similar analyses.

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